INTRODUCTION
Early warning system and conflict analysis, form a strong synergy. In the first place, the concept of early warning system is gaining a firm ground in the dictionary of strategic studies, particularly on how to prevent conflict or war in the first place. Aja Akpuru-Aja (2007).
Idealist and realists agree similarly that open-club nature of the world system is prone to lawlessness, conflict and war. However, normative theory of strategic studies project the high possibility of conflict prevention, or its avoidance, if parties, or states are wholly sensitive and responsive to early conflict indicators. This approach establishes both the fact and logic on the point of fact, conflict or war is no automatic imposition on parties or states.
BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
Currently, the concept of early warning in conflict management is a global alarm. This is no doubt as the Researchers and eve informed knowledge show that no conflict or war springs surprise. Every conflict certainly has early indicators or signals. Observing and responding appropriately to early conflict indicators may be very helpful in the prevention of conflict, in the first place.
Understanding the early indicators signals, signs, red alarm, warnings cautions etc to an issue or conflict, equipts individual or society to be readily available and get prepared in order to avert or manage a conflict. Thus, a stich in time, saves nine.
It is often presumptuousness or apathy, or indifference to conflict warning signals that most often create room for conflict itself, which in turn may lead to escalation level by war perhaps, the value of early warning system is built around peace awareness. Ikejiani O.M (1996).
Hence, this work seeks to investigate the significance of early warning in conflict prevention and conflict analysis (raise pertinent questions)and accordingly explore the ways out of it to respond to early warning signals in order to prevent the occurrence of conflict.
In the cause of this work, the Nigerian experience formed the case of study. The reason for selecting Nigeria is because Nigeria presented a good example of an average African country with numerous cases of conflict and re-occurrence of conflicts of various dimension in Nigeria, religions, political, ethnic, intra-communal, inter-community conflicts over land and natural resources, positions and representations and more still, full scale intra-country war etc.
PROBLEM IDENFICATION
In most recent years, there has been unimaginable rate of conflict in Nigeria and the threat of others people have been easily mobilized into confronting the other group and the workers civil society and the students have been easily called together to confront one set of people, policy and activities or the other Nwanegbo C.J. 2005.
Looking at what happened during the Nigeria civil War and its devasting effect on the federation, one would not fail to recoil and think especially that having seen the effect of civil war, that Nigeria would not have in anyway experience conflicts of any type. This is because that he so called civil war came with so many early warning signs (The political crisis, Kano Riot of 1953, Tiv Riot of 1964, Western Nigeria Election Crisis of 1965, The Pogrom, 1966 Coup and Counter coup, the abolition of Aburi accord etc all were indications and early warning signals which Nigeria did not take into consideration.
It happened in other African countries. The war in Rwanda came with many early warning signs (sometimes in April movies).
To show a different set of effect, for instance, in Rwanda about 500,000 people were killed by 1994. In Nigerian experience, during the early stage of the war, Oyediran (1979) recorded over 100,000 lives were lost while parts of their body maimed during the carnage in the North against the Ibos in 1966. The fact remain that most conflicts comes with early warning signs and until these signs are taken into consideration the effects of conflicts will not be prevented.
Furthermore, with inter-group, inter/intral community conflicts, religious conflict that has become an everyday affair in this country use to come with early warning signals. It is part of the negligence on the part of our leaders that these conflicts has been left to escalate into the level of destruction. In the case of Niger-Delta, Tiv-Juku, Zangon-Kataf, Ife-Modakeke, Omasi-Igah, Aguleri-Umuleri etc, to the present day Kaduna electoral violence, IQS crisis and the on going Boko Haran conflict, weather we believe it or not, they all came with signals that if proper steps/measures were taken, the issue could have been a different one today (Nnekwe L. I 2007).
CONCEPTUAL DEFINITION
In the cause of carrying out this research, the following concepts were used.
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Early warning system is an organized mechanism for tracking, measuring, and monitoring conflict and its progression in a given society.
ESCALATION
This is an increase in quantity, intensity, or scope of violent exchanges among parties. Escalation typically occurs in cycles of attack or counter attack.
CONFLICT PREVENTION
This means the anticipation of conflict that seeks to redress. Causal grievances to avoid the escalation of violent forms of conflict engagement or to curtail the re-occurrence of violent exchange or some combination of these elements.
THE CONCEPT OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN CONFLICT
Conflicts are preventable. They are not a fatality. A conflict is infact announced early by a mutitute of converging signals. These signals may not be visible to all of us. But the research knows very well how to recognize them (as an expert in conflict analysis). The research has developed the tools to help him; he call these tools early warning system (EWS).
Through the study of the repetition of some specific events, incidents for public, declarations, and their sedimentation in specific patterns, he is indeed able to measure on a conflict Richter scale so to speak with the precision of the geologist; these small political quakes that he believes announced the imminence of a major political seism, a violent conflict or, perhaps, a new war.
Since the beginning of the millennium, the African continent multiplies the initiatives to set in place modern Early Warning Systems. These Early Warning Systems allow anticipating the occurrence of natural or man-made catastrophes, be it in the health sector, in the access to natural resources, or in the political realm. Regional mechanisms have recently seen the light.. One can name among others the Conflict Early Warning and Responses (CEWARN). Mechanism for East Africa and the West African network for peace building (WANEP) initiative in West Africa. At the level of Africa, the African Union (AU) is currently working on the establishment of an integrated continental Early Warning System.
It is with the motto “Conflict are Preventable, peace is sustainable” that a Euro day international public conference on conflict Early Warning Systems was organized by the University of Khartoum (Peace Research Institute) in the Sudanese national capital Khartoum. (Heinz Krummenacher 2001).
THE NEED FOR EFFECTIVE POLITICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
The then UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan stated in his 2001 report on the “Prevention of Armed Conflict” that it was high time to leave the rhetoric of conflict prevention behind us and to create a culture of prevention; five years later we have to acknowledge that Mr Annan’s appeal has not been heard or may have been heard but not been put into practice. There is no culture of prevention in International Politics and when violent conflict appears at the horizon, the behavior patterns of decision makers are most often reactive instead of pre-active. Why? Why were we unable to realize the Secretary General’s vision to address politically motivated violence? On the other hand, why is it so much easier to introduce preventive thinking and acting in cases where emergencies are caused by environmental or man-made natural disaster?
There are basically two sets of explanations, one of a more technical nature while the other has to do with politics. Let me first address the technical aspects prevention of violent conflict requires early warning!. Without functioning early warning system, there is no such thing as effective conflict prevention. But early warning- if you want to make it work poses some real challenges. By definition, Early Warning consists of three steps:
- Systematic collection of conflict, relevant data,
- Analysis of this data, and
- Transfer of analytical insights into practice.
These three steps require answers to district questions.
First, what data is to be collected? What is relevant, and what is not? To this end, it is paramount to know what we want to warn of! Are we concerned with issues of stability and instability? Are we looking at ethnically or religiously motivated conflict or violent in general? Or, are we focusing on human rights violations, environmentally related conflict, crime etc
Second, which method (s) do we use to analyze the data? Are we using quantitative analysis? Or do we want to rely exclusively on qualitative expert assessment? Third, what is the time frame of our warning (one month, three months, one year, or five years)? Whom do we want to warn? Who would be the appropriate recipient or end-user of our analysis and warning? Finally, and most important, how do we feed the information into decision making processes?
All these questions can be answered, but implementing an early warning mechanism is not a trivial task. Above all it presupposes intellectual rigidity in clearly defining the theoretical foundations and methodological steps involve.
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM AND PEACE EDUCATION
According to Osisiona B.C Nwolise, in the contemporary world, adequate attention has not been given to peace education, whereas it is very importance. Peace education is the process of pro-active enlightenment on the knowledge and skills of observing and responding to early warning indicators. Beyond the link with early warning system, peace education extends to helping people appreciate how appealing cooperation or peaceful co-existence is, how to analyze conflict situations; the relationship between all the process involved in promoting transnational peace and security. Each concept is basically one of order, or stability to permit system maintenance. This is necessary to get the system or its subsystem more tolerant, accommodating, flexible and mobile and better governable.
However, due largely to numerous cases of avoidable conflicts and disasters, peace education on early warning system places the challenge on skilled experts, who lay discernment, orientation and interests possess the requisite abilities to:
- detect evaluate and predict a danger, hazard, or a case of conflict resistance escalation.
- Constructing a forecast or warning messages(s) for damage avoidance, or damage limitation.
- Spreading the warning message to create advance preparation to either conflict avoidance, or responsive use of dialogue as a pro-active measure to resolve limes of friction or contention before they get out of hand.
FUNCTION OF AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Summarily, Early Warning System, serves the following function
- An information system that can provide data and indicators that will be used to forecast the emergence of conflict.
- A timely alert to potential conflicts
- A useful management tool
- A provision for on going learning for those who utilize the system
BASIC ELEMENTS OF AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
- Information element
- Identification of the reliable early warning
- Identification of the target groups
- Action element
- Identification of the audience
- Exchange of information on specific crisis situations where the tension are in evidence
- Capability of monitoring the development of the process
- Initiating the most appropriate preventive measures
- Gathering information
- The system needs to estimate the dynamics of the crisis situation before the point of no return is reached
- Such information is needed which describes the determinants of the conflicual situation within the chosen pluralistic community/society.
- The system must also build in past experiences and must seek information on how inter-ethnic crisis have been coped with and if they are applicable to the given situation.
However, the first step in gathering information is the identification of the early warning. The selected people of who are committed to fulfill this demanding task must be reliable, well prepared, must have the necessary background knowledge, they should be able to identify the problem, to select relevant information and they unbiased approach to the problem.
The information gathers must have an intrinsic knowledge of the community being examined, also must be familiar with its cultural background, language of its people and must enjoy their confidence and respect.
The other element is the identification of target groups. Since inter-ethnic or religious conflict takes place between at least two opposing interest groups, it is very important from the impending of the conflictual situation to have a clear vision about who are the victims and who are the aggressors. The differentiation is essential as each target group requires specific approach.
It is also very important to estimate the sources and pre-conditions of the conflict along with its level in due time because all these elements will ultimately determines the preventive measures.
A CASE STUDY
THE AGULERI-UMELERI CONFLICT AND ITS EARLY WARNING SIGNS.
The Aguleri and Umuleri people were living as neighbors priors to the coming of colonialism. In fact, those days and even until recently, the historical origins of the two communities were traced together more than it goes to different sources. With the coming of the Europeans and subsequently, settlement at the place know now as Otuocha, the two communities previously settled at Enuobo (uptown), started drifting down and closer to the European settlement and trading parts to build and live on. Meanwhile, before growing popularity of these areas, the Unuoba-Anam people have migrated from across the river to settle in their present location at Otuocha.
As things progressed, Otuocha grew into centre of trading and attraction and land became commodized and competitive. It was then the contests for ownership of some portion of the land became conflictual court cases, propagandas, framing and reframing of history as well as open wars started.
It was the last crisis that took place in 1999 that for the first time brought in Umuoba Anam after a long time of tension. This one so destroyed Otuocha and the three communities and destroyed the heritage of cultural hegemony and the agriculturally potential lands. Those that experienced easily grasp the real feelings and effect of war.
However, before the conflict, the following incidence that served as an indicator to a conflict took place Nwanegbo CJ (200)
- Serious alarm on Umuleri side, telling her indigens to change on their bill boar Otuocha Umuleri instead of Umuleri Otuocha. This implies that Otuocha is in Umuleri showing that it was the Umuleri that ownes the Otuocha land. A serious arm robbery operations in the communities and on the only high way that connected Otuocha and Onitsha killing Aguleri and Umuoba Anam indigens.
- Molestion and harassment of the youths of Aguleri and Umuoba Anam in the stream by the Umuleri people.
- The Umuleri youths assassinated all their elders that cautioned them on their acts (a 27 names of their elders were listed and murdered).
- Attacking of the Aguleri people to carry the corps of the late local government chairman who hail from Aguleri etc.
However, as mentioned earlier that conflicts must come with some indications. The Aguleri/Umeleri conflict was not an exception as it has the aforementioned early warnings signs.
CONCLUSION
However, the idea of early warning and conflict prevention and preventive diplomacy is becoming widely accepted as compelling even in vogue one might say, very little is known that has been done in actually translating it into operating strategies or workable practice. Yet the growing interest in them is low.
Both early warning and conflict prevention are pro-active strategies in terms that both concepts suggest something in advance, something prior to the events. Early warning as well as conflict prevention may be regarded also as umbrella concepts as they are both spanning a complex, wide range of approaches.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Abdulahi M (2001) The search for Peace in the great lakes Region of Africa; in Radio Nigeria. Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow. Abuja. Northwood Resources.
Aja A.A (2007) Basic Concepts, issues and strategies of Peace & Conflict Resolution. Enugu Keny & Brothers Publication.
Albert I.O (2004) A Toolkit Peace practice in Nigeria. Abuja IDASA. Books
Ikejiani O.M (1996), Issues and Concepts in the Nigerian Conflict. Enugu, fourth Dimension Publishers.
Nwanegbo C.J (2005) Internal Conflict and African Development (An overview of Nigerian Situation). Awka, Pond Academic Publishers.
Nwolise OBC
Ochoche, S.A (2001) “Early Warning System” Abuja Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution.
Okafor F.U (1997) New Strategies for Cubing Ethnic and Religious Conflicts in Nigeria, Fourth Dimension Publishers.
Otite O & Olawale I.A (2004) Community Conflicts in Nigeria, Ibadan, Spectrum Books, Ibadan.
Strategic Conflict Assessment: Consolidated and Zonal Reports of Conflicts in Nigeria (2003). Abuja Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (PCR).
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